Hey everyone, Brin here from Tordon Capital Management — back after a couple weeks off. Summer's practically done for me, but we've still got some sunlight left in August, and I've got data I want to walk you through this week.

CMHC's Summer Outlook: The Bad News First

CMHC's summer 2026 outlook came out and it wasn't pretty: according to their forecast, we won't see 2024-level Toronto home prices again until 2028. That's a long runway if you're waiting for the market to feel like it did a couple years ago.

But here's the thing — CMHC has a track record of putting out data sets and outlooks that don't hold up. I remember this happening during the pandemic, and before that, back in 2016, when they forecast prices falling 20-30%. That didn't happen. It went the opposite direction entirely.

TRREB's June Numbers: The Good News

The other big piece of data this month is the Toronto real estate trade board's update for June, which came out in July. Their number: June was the best month we've seen in the last two years.

So now you've got two conflicting stories in the same window — CMHC saying we won't see good pricing for another two years, TRREB saying we just had the best month in two years. I'm not going to tell you which side to land on, but personally, I'm leaning more toward TRREB. Here's why.

Why I'm Leaning Bullish

1. CMHC's track record. Historically, they've been consistently off on certain data sets — the pandemic call and the 2016 call both come to mind.

2. Affordability has genuinely improved. Prices have come down significantly from peak, and that's opened up real opportunities. A bungalow in Toronto or Ajax is sitting around the mid-$800s right now. With two incomes and a household income around $150,000-$170,000, that's an affordable home for a lot of buyers — a very different picture than a couple years ago.

3. Bond yields are heading the right direction, eventually. Yields were coming down until March 2, then the war pushed them back up because of oil pricing. They started easing again slowly, then two weeks ago the war flared back up and yields jumped again on oil. But from here, I expect it to slowly trickle back down — takes the elevator up, walks the stairs down. Eventually we'll see some light at the end of the tunnel, and that's when fixed rate mortgages start looking more attractive relative to variable.

Fixed vs. Variable: My Read Right Now

If you're buying or refinancing right now, I'm personally leaning toward variable for the short term. But this really comes down to your own situation. If you got burned by the rate shocks over the last four years, I understand being gun-shy about variable — that's a real, valid concern based on your own experience.

For what it's worth, I don't see rate increases coming over the next year and a half or so, not until whatever's happening in the Middle East gets sorted out. I'd go as far as saying we may not see rate increases until 2028. But I want to be upfront — I'm one mortgage broker giving you my read, and plenty of others out there see it differently.

Bottom Line

CMHC and TRREB are telling two different stories about Toronto real estate right now, and history gives me a reason to lean toward the more optimistic read. If you're a first time buyer or thinking about refinancing, this is exactly the kind of environment where it's worth talking through your specific situation rather than just picking a side.

Let's wait and see how it plays out. Enjoy the long weekend — I'll see you all next week.